Neptune Atlas

End of life

Ship recycling and demolition

Every ship ends as steel. The last transaction in her life is not a sale of a carrier of cargo, it is a sale of several thousand tonnes of plate with an engine in it, and it is priced in a unit that appears nowhere else in chartering.

The unit is LDT, and it is not deadweight

Demolition is quoted in US dollars per light displacement tonne: the weight of the ship herself, empty, with no cargo, no fuel, no stores and no ballast. It is what the yard is buying, because it is roughly what she will yield in steel and equipment.

It is a different number from every other tonnage on the particulars. Deadweight is what she can carry. Gross tonnage is a volumetric measure used for dues and for regulation. Light displacement is what she weighs. A newcomer who quotes a scrap price against deadweight will be out by a large factor in the wrong direction, and the mistake is common enough that it is worth checking the unit on any demolition figure before repeating it. Vessel particulars sets out how the three tonnages relate.

Two consequences follow. A heavily built ship is worth more than a light one of the same deadweight, which is why older tonnage and certain types recycle better than their carrying capacity suggests. And the bunkers, lubricants and stores left on board are bought separately and are real money on top of the LDT price, exactly as they are on an ordinary sale and purchase deal.

How the price is assessed

There is no exchange for scrap ships. The Baltic Exchange publishes weekly recycling assessments contributed by panellist demolition brokers, on a defined basis: per long ton light displacement, for a tanker within a stated lightweight range, gas free for man entry, delivered to the Indian subcontinent within a stated period, as is, under her own power, cash price. Every one of those qualifiers is there because changing it changes the price.

What moves the level is mostly local and mostly not shipping. Domestic steel plate prices in the recycling country, the currency, whether banks are opening letters of credit, yard capacity and plot availability, and the monsoon calendar all matter more week to week than the world freight market does. This is the reason a demolition market can be strong while freight is strong, which looks paradoxical until you notice the buyer is in the steel business.

The cash buyer

An owner usually does not sell to a yard. He sells to a cash buyer: a specialist principal who buys the ship outright, pays the owner, takes delivery, and then arranges the last voyage and the resale to a recycling facility.

The cash buyer earns his margin by carrying risks the owner does not want. He takes the price risk between purchase and resale, which can be weeks. He takes the delivery voyage, with a ship that is at the end of her life, a reduced crew and no cargo. He often reflags and renames her for that voyage. And he takes the reputational and regulatory distance between a shipowner and a beach.

That last point is not a detail. Where a ship ends up is now a matter of published policy for many owners, charterers and lenders, and the contract with a cash buyer is where those commitments either hold or evaporate. An owner who sells "as is" to an intermediary and asks no further questions has transferred the asset and not the responsibility.

The last voyage scrambles the register

Final voyages produce data that looks like corruption and is not. Ships are renamed to short, throwaway names, sometimes a single syllable or two letters. They are reflagged to registries that accept a one-voyage entry. Class may be withdrawn. AIS reporting becomes intermittent and then stops. The registered owner changes to a company nobody has heard of, because that company exists to own one ship for six weeks.

The one thing that does not change is the IMO number, which is why a register keyed on the number survives the end of a ship's life and a register keyed on names does not. Ship names and renaming covers the general problem; demolition is where it is at its worst, because several of the identifying fields change at once and none of the changes are errors. Flag states explains why the flag is the field most likely to move.

The rules that now govern it

Two regimes matter, and they are related but not identical.

Alongside both sits the Basel Convention on transboundary movements of hazardous waste, which in some circumstances treats an end-of-life ship as waste. That is the legal tension behind the careful language in a demolition sale, and behind the practice of selling a ship "for further trading" when the seller does not want to be the one declaring her finished.

BIMCO publishes RECYCLECON, a standard contract for the sale of a ship for green recycling, drafted alongside SALEFORM and carrying the convention's requirements into the transaction itself.

The decision, and why it steadies the market

An owner reaches the demolition decision by comparing two numbers. On one side, what the ship will fetch per LDT today. On the other, the cost of keeping her trading: the next special survey and drydocking, any conditions of class, ballast water and emissions compliance work, and the earnings she is likely to make in a market that is usually poor at the moment the question arises.

When the yard bill exceeds the residual value plus expected earnings, she goes. Because that calculation turns against the oldest ships first, and because it turns hardest at the bottom of the market, demolition removes supply exactly when supply is worst. It is the floor under second-hand values and the mechanism that ends a trough. Shipping cycles is the wider pattern; this is the part of it that actually takes ships out of the fleet.

References

Neptune Atlas

Neptune Atlas records light displacement on the sale history it holds, which is the unit the demolition market actually prices in. Of 31,852 recorded sales, 21,841 carry an LDT. Every paid plan starts with 7 free days. A card is needed to start them, and cancelling before they end costs nothing.

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